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The China Threat
China is a much bigger threat to us than Iran, or Iraq, or "Islamo-fascists" ever could be. Why?
- China is committed to building a nuclear class aircraft carrier that rivals our own, every year for the next 16 years.
- China owns most of our debt through treasury bonds.
- China is quickly becoming a capitalist country, and while their economy thrives, ours struggles.
They could easily call in their debts. We of course couldn't pay and so they would accept payment in the form of our land. We'll try and fight them, but they foot the bill for our wars, and at this stage we'll have no money anyway, so they'll easily take it. And we're worried about a "nuclear Iran." Ridiculous.
The China situation is interesting, but it seems to me that you're advocating an isolationist type of solution. I do not believe they are as big of a long term threat as some pundits do. For instance, the inflationary gap is huge and the economy will burn out eventually. There are also too many outside pressures on their economic system to continually supply good quality product for the rest of the world, so demand for Chinese goods will decrease -- it already is.
They may own our debt, but I do not believe they will drop it. Also, I think you over play the importance of our debt with China. We would never offer them land for payment and as far as payment for the war goes -- the American budget is never a zero sum game so we'd use whatever we could and totally destroy them militarily.
I think the last thing China would want to do is call America up on its debt. China's economic boom is dependent on America. What do you think would happen if American businesses decided to move to India? The Chinese economy would come to a halt. There is no shortage of cheap labor in the world, but its only in America do you find such rampant consumerism. I also believe that the last thing any nation would try to do is invade American soil. Our nuclear arsenal guarantees security. Last point on the Chinese nuclear class aircraft carriers - I'll concede that they certainly have the man power military advantage over us, but keep in mind when it comes to military innovations, America is in a class of its own. We spend more on our defense than most countries' GDP. The technology that China is using was probably American. I'll concede that China certainly has leverage over the USA, but its been sensationalized.
China could be a threat especially if you are viewing it through the classic realist lens of international relations, but in reality for the short term it doesn't make alot of sense. As the other posters have pointed out, China is extremely dependent on continued US consumption of their cheap manufactured goods, that's why they loan us money so we can buy their stuff! It would be disastrous for them to dump their Treasury holdings rapidly, because they would lose money but also destabilize the international economy. That isn't in their interests. As far as claiming US property or companies etc. They don't have the power projection capability (ie carriers, supply chains, etc.) to seize our assets militarily, and as far as hostile takeovers go in business, Uncle Sam always gets the last word (see CNOOC and Unocal). Your point about nuclear carriers is valid to a point, but building and training a CBG to project power is a huge, expensive trial and error process which means Chinese carriers won't be a threat anytime within the next 10-15 years I think. Overtime though (ca. 2080), China may have the economic power to challenge our hegemony and their goals and actions will be telling. They can choose to be a major stake holder/leader in the current international order or create their own via hard and/or soft power. I for one hope both our leaders and theirs see that war over hegemony isn't worth it.
Your post seems a bit reactionary. You're idea of exchanging land for making good on debts is a non-starter and seems a far fetched from reality. While I agree the rise of China as a great power is something we should be concerned about, I echo bethany's sentiment that it is nothing we should lose sleep over. I think it far more likely that we go to war against Iran then China...America's seems to have a penchant postWWII to going to war in countries vastly inferior (militarily, economically, technologically) to our own (see Korea, Vietnam, Kosovo, Somalia, etc.)....but I think as China opens economically it is also opening politically, step by step, and as such argue that we should encourage its integration into the international system so intimately that the cost China would bear in engaging in a major conflict with us would vastly outweigh any conceivable benefit it would gain in waging the war in the first place.....
China is a threat because they told us they were. If you don't believe me, read this article. China is a huge threat, and their army's size is mind boggling. The only thing stopping them at the moment is their inability to transport their army efficiently, as we can. Never worth losing sleep over an enemy, as long as you're ready for them when they arrive.
At the same time, the terrorist threat is also prominent. We should not deal with them so lightly, however.
Read this article:
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2007/6/18/120950.shtml
-Thank you.
China is no threat, China is dependant on US trade. Attacking the US would be economic suicide for both countries. US and China are joined at the hip with trade, I expect them to only become more friendly over time. If China builds up their navy, don't think the US won't respond. US navy is about twice as large as the rest of the world combined! You must understand that the US is militarily the biggest super power since ancient rome, hence it gets a little silly to be so scared of invasion. Talking about China as a threat is laughable they can bluff all they want about building carrier force, wait till they actually do it.
Just as America might be moving toward the European Socialist-Democrat model -- which is clearly working, China has shifted from a complete Totalitarian-Communism to a Totalitarian-Capitalist modality.
There's no turning back now. But I do believe we need to curb our end of these global trade agreements that have our economic fanny in a sling -- thanks to Corporate America and its insatiable greed for profit.
With so many people, and so much cheap labor big business loves china. I think it doesn't like people interferring in China's domestic affairs, which is fair enough, unless you strongly believe tha Tibetans should get more rights. I'm glad of China. The world is a richer place for it - all that great food and culture. But I like the take it and leave it thing. China isn't a nuclear threat. The U.S is spending too much money to wars, and other things. China wants to be accepted, and I think we are seeing the early beginning of a world giant that will surpass the U.S soon as a global economic power.
I think everyone that is worried about China being the big bad boogie man is ignoring a lot of facts.
1) China's economy is incredibly dependent on us and we are dependent on them. No one wants to rock the boat fiscally with such trying economic times ahead.
2) China is slowly starving. Despite their best efforts and their growing economy China still has too many people and not enough food. With food prices rising China's problems are getting even worse.
3) China is too oppressive. For centuries now the seat of World Power has rested in a country (or group of countries) that have treated their citizens fairly well (oftentimes they treat foreigners poorly but that's a different story). Western Europe and the US being the big nods the two groups of countries that have had 'World Power' for as long as actual global power has existed, USSR is a great example of a country who doesn't do this failing to be a World power. China doesn't do this and it hurts them. They spend a lot of resources controlling their population, the media, corporations in the country, and many other aspects of life. China's economic liberalization is causing more western and progressive ideas to get into the country (look at the internet), and causing more and more people to become unhappy with the one party system. Many people in China are not thinking thoughts about revolution or anything like that but a growing lower class is becoming increasingly more upset and is causing more and more problems for China (Tibet comes to mind).
4) China is too small. They don't have enough space and need to spend a lot of recources accomidating this fact and dealing with growing pollution within their borders.
My main point is that China has too many people, not enough food and too many other problems to worry about wreaking havoc on their number one money making business partner the US. Starting problems with the US would hurt China on so many levels it's not funny. I do not fear China, I fear for its lower class. I'm very interested to see what will happen with China in the future, but it will not be an assault upon America of any sort.
While this isn't a status-changing argument, I would like to point something out that many people seem to overlook. China's economy is great, yes, but all trade-based economies rely on other countries. Crashing the American consumer market would be just as deadly to the Chinese market, because they have to sell their stuff no matter how cheap it is, right?
I agreed with politicalscribe While America is moving toward the European Socialist-Democrat, China has shifted to Totalitarian-Capitalist modality. The other day I saw Chinese TV talk show, they mentioned that, the Chinese leader wants every Chinese to be in every country in the world, learn their cultures, life styles and technologies, but never forget China. They can come back (to China) every time if they want to
What does America truly have to fear? Other than terrorist organizations attacking us I cannot see any actual nation directly attacking us anytime soon. I know this may be slightly naive but we are still too much of a threat for any established nation to start swinging on us. When it comes to the economy we spend too much and have too much demand for our dollar to be pulled down the economic ladder to far. America cannot remain on top of the superpower food chain forever, but that is just a lesson from history. As long as our citizens are safe and fed why should we care who is the biggest superpower?
A good comment theone, China is probably the first successful Totalitarian-Capitalist country in the World. Usually totalitarians move to control business a lot more. Most theorists (both political and economic) that I've read are a little surprised so much economic liberalization has occurred with such limited social liberalization. I think it mostly has to do with the stubborness not only of the Chinese government, but of the Chinese people too, who are not in a rush to change their societal ways. Tides are turning though, and I think rising fuel and food prices might be the match to China's social powder keg. We'll see if I'm right or not within five years, once food shortages have been felt for a long time.
Also ffdesmond I agree that America cannot remain number 1 forever, it's simply not possible, but you're final point is also correct as long as we still have influence, money, safety and food we'll be ok. The way superpowers shrink changed drastically in the late 40's as we resolutely surpassed Britain as the World super power. Britain did not crumble and wither away, in fact they remain to this day a very important player on the global playing field. I think we can expect that whenever the US is no longer the top dog that we will still be very much a commanding force, and I don't think we'll see that day for quite awhile yet (and my personal opinion is an Obama presidency will greatly help reestablish our superpower status, just my own thoughts though).
