Magister

Both Democratic candidates and their supporters have tried to make something from their performance in whichever "Red State", they've prevailed during this primary season. Of course winning the majority of Democrat votes in a Democratic primary means very little beyond the current race and a candidate's victory is really no indication of how they'll perform in the General Election.

To illustrate this point, I've prepared the following chart. The figures for each of the two primaries represent the total vote for all candidates and the last number is the final vote for John Kerry in the November election.

Alabama
2004 Primary Date: June 1
2004 Democratic Primary: 218,574
2008 Democratic Primary: 539,743
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 693,933

Arizona
2004 Primary Date: Feb. 3
2004 Democratic Primary: 222,626
2008 Democratic Primary: 390,016
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 893,524

Arkansas
2004 Primary Date: May 18
2004 Democratic Primary: 266,848
2008 Democratic Primary: 294,633
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 469,953

Georgia
2004 Primary Date: March 2
2004 Democratic Primary: 602,499
2008 Democratic Primary: 1,046,485
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 1,366,149

Missouri
2004 Primary Date: Feb. 3
2004 Democratic Primary: 416,104
2008 Democratic Primary: 820,453
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 1,259,171

New Mexico
2004 Primary Date: Feb. 3
2004 Democratic Primary: 95,954
2008 Democratic Primary: 139,869
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 370,942

Oklahoma
2004 Primary Date: Feb. 3
2004 Democratic Primary: 299,806
2008 Democratic Primary: 401,230
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 503,966

South Carolina
2004 Primary Date: Feb. 3
2004 Democratic Primary: 291,175
2008 Democratic Primary: 530,322
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 661,699

Tennessee
2004 Primary Date: Feb. 10
2004 Democratic Primary: 358,840
2008 Democratic Primary: 614,096
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 1,036,477

Utah
2004 Primary Date: Feb. 24
2004 Democratic Primary: 33,839
2008 Democratic Primary: 122,617
Dem. Votes in 2004 GE: 241,199

As you can see, the 2008 primary totals are all higher than the 2004 figures, but that could be a function of a change in the primary date, the fact that we have a competitive race and every vote counts, and I'm sure some of it is attributable to persons voting in a primary for the first time or for the first time in a few cycles.

In every case, the 2008 totals are less than the Democratic vote in the fall, so I don't think a lot can be made from who carried what state by itself, and the exit polls posted on the CNN website does not note the respondent's history.