kate

Politicalbase.com uses money to measure likely electoral votes, but a recent survey by Hitwise raises the question of who would win if you based elections on the number of web hits each candidate receives.  Well, for one Ron Paul would be a front-runner, Gravel would still have no chance of winning the Democratic nomination let alone the general election, and Giuliani and Romney would be trailing in 4th and 5th respectively for their parties nomination.  Mr. Thompson, despite an initial good start (web and standard polling wise), would still only be in third for the nomination. By this hits-measure the Democrats have a dead heat with Obama only slightly behind Hillary - a far cry from the 20 point lead Hillary has in the standard system.  Clearly the frontrunners should be thanking their lucky stars web hits don't count on primary day.

Everyone is talking about what the Tuesday elections mean for 2008.  Is the Democratic optimism resulting from their wins in Kentucky and the VA state Senate false or have states simply started turning purple around the country?   Both Kentucky and Virginia tend to mix up control between the federal and state levels, but the Democratic wins in each these states may energize the Democrats to go for more as both states have Senate seats in the 2008 election (KY's Republican Mitch McConnell is up for re-election in 2008 and the VA seat is an open seat) and turn them from purple to blue.  And of course, we can't forget the presidential election.  Both states have been known to go Democratic and Republican in presidential elections (although it's been quite a while since VA was blue in a presidential race).  The rise of one party tends to bode well for their presidential candidate, but with these states seemingly stuck in the middle did Tuesday really tell us anything other than the problem with being purple is that you have to pick a side come November?

Yesterday was election day and, in a number of a places, yesterday was a big deal.  Control of the Virginia state Senate looked like it might change hands from Republican to Democrat.  Democrat Steve Beshear was running a close race with Kentucky Governor Ernie Fletcher (R).  Mississippi's Republican Governor Haley Barbour was up for re-election.  In two of these three cases the Democrats came out on top, winning four Republican seats in Virginia to take control of the state Senate for the first time in over a decade and Steve Beshear beat Fletcher with an estimated 59% of the vote (a landslide by most accounts).  Could this be a sign of what's to come in 2008?  Maybe, but don't forget, Republicans did hold on to the LA Governor's race so technically we're tied with a long, long way to go.  But if the Kentucky Democratic win says anything, it definitely lets the Republicans know scandal is the fastest way to end a re-election bid (Can anyone say Ted Stevens perhaps?). 

Reports seem to be unclear on whether Democratic Representative Tom Udall will run for Domenici's open New Mexico Senate seat. Udall had originally said he would not throw his hat into the ring for the Senate seat, but with Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish officially out Udall's candidacy is looking more and more likely. Not to mention the draft Udall effort that's caught the attention of the D.C. Dems that has Udall on video saying he's thinking about a run.    With his name recognition, war chest, and the likely backing of the DSCC, Udall could make Democrat Mayor of Albuquerque's run a tough one.

The big news of the day for Hillary has really been two stories, one good, one not so good.  Not so good news story of the day:  the debate wasn't exactly a slam dunk for her.  Good news story of the day:  the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), the largest union of public employees and health care workers in the U.S., has officially endorsed Hillary.  With around 1.4 million members (and 300,000 in Iowa alone) this is a huge win for Hillary, especially with their intention to spend $60 million on 2008 campaigns (unfortunately not all of this will go to Hillary - some will have to make it to the congressional and state elections).  While no one expected the AFSCME to come out in support of a Republican, it seems natural that their endorsement would roughly match up with who the the union members support.  The funny thing is, a quick search of which candidate their employees are donating to says Hillary isn't the one for them.  Obama has so far received just over $6,500 in individual donations from AFSCME members/employees and Hillary only $2300.  I'm sure the union has some sway come polling time, but with these numbers, this might not be quite the coup Hillary had hoped for.

It looks like Kay Hagan, Democratic State Senator, has changed her mind. She's in and ready to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Hagan will be one of three candidates looking to take the seat from Dole. Major problems each will be facing, however: first, all three candidates will have to compete with Dole's nationwide name recognition and second, Dole's already raised over $3 million dollars. Hagan's entering the race late so she best get to work if she wants to compete with a candidate who's averaged over $500,000 in fundraising each month.

Ok, so maybe Warner shouldn't be crowned and handed his key to the VA Senate office just yet.  With Tom Davis officially out of the race and the contest narrowed Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Jim Gilmore (both former governors) the real campaign will begin.  A recent Rasmussen poll found that Gilmore was 16% points behind Warner - a significant difference, but not entirely insurmountable.  The election is over 12 months away after all. 

The field of contenders for the Nebraska Senate seat up for grabs in 2008 continues to shape up.  Or down rather as rumored contenders drop out.  First there was the Democrat's hope, Bob Kerrey, who declared he would not run.  In the wake of Kerrey's announcement, the Democrats are still searching for a candidate - courting Mike Fahey and Scott Kleeb (the courting of Kleeb includes, of late, a new, independent internet drive to get him to run).  On the Republican side, most recently, Tony Raimondo announced he would not seek the Republican nomination (that's two now that Johanns has scared out of the race with his name, record, and the support of the Governor).  Johanns will still face Pat Flynn and Jon Bruning in the primary, but all bets are on Johanns.