stefcon

John Kerry is endorsing Barack Obama today. He'll be making the announcement in South Carolina-- a state he lost in both the 2004 primary and general elections and that also happens to be the birthplace of his former running mate, John Edwards, whom he is overlooking in favor of Obama.

Obama has also won the endorsements of Rep. George Miller, a Democrat from California, and Sen. Tim Johnson, a Democrat from South Dakota.

The Kerry endorsement could help Obama look more like a credible candidate to people other than college students... not sure how much John Kerry's seal of approval could make anyone look like a winner, though. Kerry will announce his news at an Obama "Rally for Change" at the College of Charleston.

With the Republican nomination still completely up for grabs, Mike Huckabee is focusing on two upcoming primary states that could give him an edge in the race and effectively kill two of his opponents. Mitt Romney, after coming in at a disappointing second place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, is putting all his chips on the Michigan primary at this point. Fred Thompson, whose campaign has been virtually lifeless, is depending on South Carolina to save him.

Romney, who was born in Michigan and whose father was governor there, announced today he'll be pulling ads out of Florida and South Carolina to focus his resources on Michigan. He said today that except for a quick trip to South Carolina for the debate on Thursday, he'd be spending “every minute of time” until the Jan. 15 primary in Michigan.

Huckabee launched a new ad in Michigan today that plays up his populist message. The latest poll out has Huckabee statistically tied with Romney in the economically-challenged state.

While his money is being put to use in Michigan, Huckabee himself flew into South Carolina this morning to battle it out with Fred Thompson over who hates abortion more. ABC News reports that Huckabee talked more about abortion in one 35-minute address there today than he did in his entire five days in New Hampshire. "If you can say the taking of an innocent life isn't wrong, then nothing is wrong," he said.

Meanwhile, Thompson said, "I'll stake my Right to Life endorsement against their NEA endorsement any day," taking a swipe at Huckabee's endorsement from the New Hampshire branch of the teachers' union. Thompson is moving his entire campaign to South Carolina. "It very well could turn out that my political future depends on South Carolina," he said. Given recent polls have Thompson in fourth or fifth place there, with Huckabee clearly in the lead, his political future's looking pretty grim.

While Huckabee seems to be doing pretty well in those states, he can't count out a fight from John McCain, who appears to be polling second in South Carolina and at a close third in Michigan in the wake of his New Hampshire win. He also has the most endorsements out of South Carolina. Plus, CNN is bringing us the critical news that Huckabee's gained like 12 pounds on the campaign trail. Who knows how that will come into play.

Now that Clinton's spoiled the party for Obama, proving last night that she's still a viable candidate, there will certainly be increased scrutiny over the Democratic primaries that take place in between now and Feb. 5-- namely those in Nevada, South Carolina and Florida. While the candidates may find some respite from the madness (though probably not) in the lapse between now and the Jan. 19 Nevada caucuses, pollsters and pundits will surely be working nonstop to churn out as many pointless predictions as possible.

With that in mind, it seems odd that the last poll out of Nevada was taken more than a month ago. Those polls have Clinton with a strong lead; the American Research Group, for instance, has Clinton leading with 45 percent and Obama in a distant second with 18 percent. That poll, however, was taken Dec. 1 - 6.

Late last night, right after the results from the New Hampshire primary had all come in, the Nevada chapter of the SEIU announced its endorsement of Obama. The Culinary Workers union was expected to endorse Obama if he won in New Hampshire, but with the Clinton upset, the endorsement is less certain. Word on the street, though, is that the union will still announce their support for Obama this morning. Yet as the Politico points out, the unions' endorsements may be less important than people are anticipating, what with only 10 days to turn the vocal pledges of support into actual votes at the caucuses.

The Nevada caucuses will be particularly interesting because, like in Iowa, candidates have to meet a certain test of "viability" in order to get any delegates in a precinct; some precincts require candidates get the support of at least 25 percent of supporters present. Kucinich already told his supporters once to make Obama their second choice, but he didn't even register in the last Nevada polls. Based on those old numbers, Edwards may be able to just barely eke out enough support to clear the 15 percent threshold some precincts have, but Richardson wouldn't make it. If Richardson is truly trying to win by garnering support in western states, as he suggested yesterday on CNN, he won't offer up his supporters to any other candidate like Kucinich has.

Also of note, only registered Democrats can participate in the Democratic caucuses in Nevada, but people can register the day of the caucuses.

Why do I think Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary last night? Because she cried.

Let me expound on this.

Once Clinton was trounced in Iowa by Barack Obama and found herself trailing him by more than 10 points in some New Hampshire polls, she knew she had to, at the very least, tweak her strategy going into the Granite State. Hillary realized this past week that she needed to make her personal narrative more appealing; as E.J. Dionne pointed out, she had not really minded her own wisdom that "you campaign in poetry, but you govern in prose." In lieu of poetry, Hillary opted for television drama, formatting her narrative to fit the story arc of her favorite television show, Grey's Anatomy.

As the New York Times puts it, this is a story about "The New Modern Woman, Ambitious and Feeble." The tired storyline, at once ingratiating and unsettling, goes a little something like this:

An accomplished and confident woman embarks on an ambitious career.

[HILLARY: "I'm in it to win it."]

Her life is suddenly turned upside down by the swagger of an upstart man whose condescending coolness gets the best of her. 

[REPORTER SCOTT SPRADLING: Voters "seem to like Barack Obama more."]

[HILLARY: "Well, that hurts my feelings."]

[OBAMA: "You're likable enough, Hillary."]

She is emotional and vulnerable.

[HILLARY: You know, I have so many opportunities in this country. I just don't want to see us fall backwards. I don't." [Cue tears]]

It's these climactic, heart-wrenching scenes that get you, the viewer, wanting more. Women eat it up on prime time, and it is apparently a story that appeals to them in real life as well. Just listen to this anecdote relayed by Melissa Block at the tail-end of NPR's third hour of special primary coverage:

I was just talking to a female voter, a 36-year-old named Christina Anderson (sp?) from Manchester, and she said she went through the biggest swing of her life. She was really conflicted-- she only decided to vote for Hillary Clinton this morning, and guess what decided it for her: it was the event yesterday where Hillary Clinton was at the diner in, I believe, Portsmouth, and Hillary Clinton got very emotional and welled up. She said she had been hearing the media talk about it, and she was getting very frustrated. She watched the video, she said, "Look I was impressed by John Edwards, I was charmed by Barack Obama." But when she watched the video of Hillary Clinton getting very emotional as she spoke and getting very passionate, she said, "What I saw was someone very passionate, very committed-- that clinched it for me: her conviction that she's doing the right thing, the way she connected, and the passion she expressed-- not the emotion, but the passion and conviction she expressed when she welled up." She said... it was never a likability question for her-- she found Clinton very likable-- but when she saw that moment, that clinched it for her. And the Clinton campaign itself now is saying that was a key moment for her. They think that's what turned a lot of women voters to her camp... Up until this morning [Anderson] said she was even thinking about voting for John McCain... voting for a Republican for the first time in her life.

Anderson wasn't the only one who fell for Hillary's new story. Women made up 57 percent of the Democratic electorate, and 46 percent of those women voted for Clinton, versus 34 percent for Obama.

The next scene in Hillary's story, which took place last night in New Hampshire, played out just as it should have: Our heroine triumphs and shows that her professional success has lead to her emotional growth.

[HILLARY: "I come tonight with a very, very full heart. I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week I've listened to you, and in the process, I've found my own voice."]

This is a story arc I can live with-- if it ends there. It's hard to fault Hillary for doing what works. However, this story has no place outside of the political theater of campaigns. Along with the above comment, Hillary also had this to say in her victory speech: "For all the ups and downs of this campaign, you helped remind everyone that politics isn’t a game. This campaign is about people. It’s about making a difference in your lives. It’s about making sure that everyone in this country has the opportunity to live up to his or her God-given potential. That has been the work of my life."

Clearly, when Hillary said "this campaign is about people" she was speaking of all Americans. But this week, she made it about just about one person: herself. If she becomes president, the egocentric "ambitious and feeble" storyline has to go.

While the concentrated primary calendar has intensified the pace of the elections significantly since the starting gun sounded in Iowa, the vast sums of money some candidates have raised could keep them in the running for longer than expected. While most of these candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination, Ron Paul is determined to keep things interesting on the Republican side at least until Feb.5, when he will apparently "reassess" things.

The libertarian candidate is running radio ads this week in Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, North Dakota, Louisiana, Maine, Florida and California, where about half of voters could be turning in mail-in ballots within days. And while Paul's buckets of money, a showing in Iowa that was twice as good as Giuliani's and a lead over Thompson in New Hampshire polls couldn't get him into Fox's forum last night, he'll be making an appearance on Jay Leno tonight. Clearly, ignoring the writers' strike isn't an issue for him.

The kooky candidate will definitely shake things up for the frontrunners tomorrow in New Hampshire, where he's run six television commercials and 10 radio ads.

Meanwhile, Duncan Hunter will most definitely not shake things up tomorrow but will remain the race nonetheless, he stubbornly announced today. At least Hunter can brag that he won at least one delegate in the Wyoming caucus, in which Paul won none.

As the last-minute predictions for tonight's caucuses continue today, the belief seems to be that while Iowa could mean a lot in the Democratic race, the Republican nomination will still be up for grabs regardless of tonight's outcome. That assessment stems from the fact that John McCain has seen a steady increase of support in New Hampshire; CNN released a poll yesterday that has McCain tied with Romney in New Hampshire at 29 percent. The media seems to be working under the assumption that McCain will place third in Iowa and then have a real chance to prove himself five days later.

But is a third-pla